Mahle fits the Cubs formula for undervalued pitching

Jesse Johnson - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 8 hours ago

The Cubs are no strangers to making questionable free agent signings, only to have them work out in their favor. Take last year, for example, as Matthew Boyd, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and Caleb Thielbar were all viewed as questionable signings based on their previous body of work.

Not only did all four of those signings work out for the Cubs, but had it not been for all of them, you could make the case that the Cubs wouldn't have made the postseason, as all four played a massive role in the team's overall success this past season. When it comes to the Cubs and how they approach things, why fix what isn't broken? The Cubs are almost certainly going to make a questionable acquisition, hoping it pays off.

Looking at this year's free agent market and the potential targets the Cubs may want to take a swing at, Tyler Mahle is one of those names that comes to mind as a questionable pickup, but one that could come with reaping rewards. Initially a Cincinnati Reds prospect, the Cubs have seen a lot of Mahle over the years, but it wasn't until the past few seasons that he came into his own as a pitcher.

Since breaking into the league, the now 31-year-old has appeared in 142 career games, 141 of which have been starts, and has gone on to post a 39-46 record. Record aside, Mahle has consistently done a great job of keeping his team in the game, as his 4.07 ERA would suggest. As bad as things have been at times for Mahle, there have also been times when he looked the part of a legitimate starting pitcher, and you can look at his 2021 season for that.

In what was by far his best season as a starter, Mahle went on to make a career high 33 starts in 2021, posting a career best 13 wins to go with six losses. With that came a 3.63 ERA, which was one of the best marks of his career, as were his 210 strikeouts and 180 innings pitched. Take that season out of the mix, and Mahle has never pitched an entire season without injury, as the overall inconsistency in his game has hampered him in the past.

The 2025 season was no different as Mahle got off to a career-best start, only to get injured right before the trade deadline, which ultimately took him off the trading block for contending teams. Before another injury, Mahle was dealing, making 16 starts and posting a 6-4 record across 86 2/3 innings of work.

Even if that wouldn't be considered a great record, the underlying numbers tell the entire story, as Mahle struck out 66 in those 86 innings while also walking 29. That alone shows you an increased walk rate and a decreasing strikeout rate, which is never what you want to see. Considering he posted a career best 2.18 ERA this past season, it goes to show how good Mahle was, even if he did give up his share of baserunners this season.

Armed with a fastball that sits in the 94-96 MPH range, Mahle has gotten it up to 97, but those days are few and far between at this point. While the fastball is his go-to offering, considering the sinking action it has, he also does a great job of mixing in his change-up and slider as his primary off-speed offerings to help offset a hitter's timing.

When on, he can be a tough customer to make solid contact against, as you saw this season. However, if he isn't as sharp as he needs to be, Mahle will get hit. That is where pitching in Wrigley could come in handy, as it would allow Mahle to be more aggressive. Should he have one of his off days, there are times when he can get away with it because of the winds.

Already with significant innings limitations the past four seasons due to several shoulder and elbow surgeries, some are wondering how much more he has left in the tank. However, with an expected one-year contract worth somewhere in the 12-15 million range, it's hard to ignore the fit for this team, as this has a ton of similarities to the Boyd contract that the Cubs gave out last season.

He came into the season with plenty of concerns due to his health and he not only proved those concerns to be wrong, but went out and pitched like an ace most of the season. Who knows, maybe the same can happen for Mahle, and if it does, the Cubs would once again be getting a quality pitcher at potentially a fraction of the price.