Why Pablo López is the type of trade target the Cubs should consider |
Dustin Riese
· · 16 hours ago
Whether you want to believe the reports is up to you, but it does appear that the Cubs have one distinct pitching target in mind with Michael King. Given his body of work and the success he has had, you can see the fit. His recent injury history, especially this past season, could be a cause for concern, but it could also lead to a cheaper deal.
As nice as it would be for the Cubs to add a guy like King, this team has put all their eggs in one basket before, and more often than not, that has not worked out in the Cubs' favor. Given the current state of this team and their rotation, they can't afford to put all their eggs in one basket, as it is crucial to have a backup plan in play. When it comes to the trade market, you can take your pick as to who the fans want to see, as the Cubs have plenty of options to choose from if they want to part with some of their talent. Several names have already been discussed, but one that hasn't been mentioned much but should be is Pablo Lopez. The former Marlin and now Twins right-hander has been a reliable option most of his career, but has never been seen as a true ace apart from one season with Minnesota. The 29-year-old right-hander has pitched much better than his career line would indicate, as he has gone 59-53 in his career with an ERA hovering around 3.50. His best season came with the Twins in 2024, when he won a career high 15 games despite posting an ERA north of 4.00. That was the third double-digit winning season of his career, and had he not gotten hurt last season, he was well on his way to another one. Still, with a 5-4 record across 14 starts and a 2.74 ERA, you can see how dialed in Lopez was, which is worth noting as the offseason continues. While Joe Ryan may be the better of the two targets from the Twins staff, Minnesota is in rebuild mode, so finding a way to get rid of Lopez's contract is a major priority for them. Had it not been for his injuries, Lopez would be the one everyone wants, but those injuries raise massive question marks that could make his return less than it initially would be. He missed three months with a strain of the teres major muscle in the back of his shoulder, then made three starts in September before spending the rest of the year on the injured list with what was termed a “mild forearm strain." Forearm strains are a code for a future Tommy John, but according to reports obtained after the season ended, there is currently no concern about an elbow or ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury. That is the best-case scenario for someone who was on his way to a career year and continues to hear his name associated with the key trade pieces this offseason. Before his 2025 season, Lopez was coming off several good seasons, including a pair with the Marlins. He doesn’t walk guys (career 6.3 percent walk rate) and is under contract for two more seasons at $21.75 million per year, not an unreasonable deal for someone who slides right into the middle of anyone's rotation. When you look at what he can offer the Cubs, he sits in the 95-96 MPH range but can touch 97 on rare occasions. His best pitch has always been his slider, which tends to run around 87 MPH and offers plenty of late break. Considering what they got from some of their starters last year, Lopez would be a massive upgrade and would allow the Cubs an insurance policy once Jameson Taillon leaves. In terms of the type of package it would cost to get him, the names Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Moises Ballesteros come to mind, as the Twins will want some offensive pop. Had Brandon Birdsell not gotten hurt, he may have been an option, but maybe, just maybe, you could get the Twins to take Jordan Wicks or Ben Brown off your shoulders to sweeten the pot.
