Vegas odds, notes on Bears-Commanders
Denny Medley - USA Today Sports

Vegas odds, notes on Bears-Commanders

by - Correspondent -

Last season, this game was a slugfest on Thursday Night, with the Washington Commanders pulling out a 12-7 victory after the Chicago Bears failed to score in the red zone. This season, do not count on that being the case. With the Bears defense blowing 21-point leads and the Commanders scoring over 31 points in two of their last three games, this looks like it will be another high-scoring affair.

Washington, sitting at 2-2, are favored to win this game versus the winless Bears with a spread of 6.5. The over/under is 44.5.

First, always go over for Bears games. They have given up at least 25 points in their last 14 games, including giving up an average of 34.25 points so far this season. If the Commanders are able to put up 33 points, which seems likely given their most recent performances, all the Bears have to do to cover the over is score 12 points. Given they are averaging 18.75 points per game this season, they should be able to put up 12 points.

Quarterback Justin Fields finally put up some solid numbers going against the Denver Broncos. So, it seems tempting to bet that he could do well in this game as well. However, that was against a defense that is allowing a 78.1% completion percentage, a league-worst. The Commanders are a far better passing defense, only allowing a 64.1% completion percentage, which is No. 12 in the NFL. Still, he has usually been able to put up at least 200 passing yards, meaning he should cover the over / under for passing yards set at 196.5 on DraftKings.

The Commanders also have a decent rushing defense, and Fields has yet to top 50 rushing yards in a game so far this season. Therefore, if you are betting on Fields for rushing yards, taking the under for 48.5 yards seems like the right move.

For wide receivers for the Bears, betting on Darnell Mooney would not be a good idea. Prior to this week, he had one target over the last two games. In the season opener, he had seven targets and a touchdown. Betting either way on Mooney is a risk.

Betting on DJ Moore, on the other hand, seems like a better idea. Chicago is tied for seventh in the NFL in passing touchdowns with seven. Moore accounts for two of those, getting a touchdown in each of the past two games. Furthermore, his targets have been much better since the season opener. Thus, he seems like a good bet for an anytime scorer. Also, since he has topped 100 receiving yards in two of the last three games, we would also be a good player for the over in receiving yards, as DraftKings has his over/under set at 48.5.

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