Vegas odds for Bears-Falcons
Jamie Sabau - USA Today Sports

Vegas odds for Bears-Falcons

by - Correspondent -

CHICAGO - For the second week in a row, the Chicago Bears are favored to win. Again, it is by a narrow margin of three points. The over/under is currently sitting at 38. While the under has been working for the Bears the past few weeks, this week seems like a time for that to change.

An over/under of 38 is quite low, meaning that bettors are probably counting on this game to be a defense-dominant game. This makes sense given the current weather forecast with a little bit of wind. However, the Falcons look like a completely different team with Taylor Heinecke at quarterback as they were able to put up a lot more points. Therefore, bettors should take a risk and go with the over in this matchup.

As of late, Chicago’s best offensive weapon has been tight end Cole Kmet. Things do not look too promising for him to be able to play as he has not practiced on Wednesday or Thursday after sustaining a knee injury in the victory against the Arizona Cardinals. Therefore, there are two different paths bettors need to consider.

First is the path if Kmet is out. Then, bettors should turn their attention to receiver DJ Moore. Moore’s yards have been getting taken by Kmet. Therefore, if Kmet is out, then the primary target for quarterback Justin Fields will be Moore. While that surely means more double-teams for Moore, he is a receiver who can make amazing plays even when he is double-teamed. In that case, bettors should count on him to get in the end zone at some point in this game. Further, he should go over on his receiving yards.

Second is the avenue for if Kmet is able to play. Then, Kmet is the one to bet on. For receiving yards, bettors should count on the over because Moore will be double-teamed sometimes, regardless. In addition, he is the one getting the yards lately, as his catch percentage over the last three weeks is 77.8 percent on his 18 targets. During that time span, he has 196 yards.

Regardless of whether Kmet plays or not, bettors still need to pay attention to Fields. Fields has always gotten his best production on the ground and since returning from his dislocated thumb, the Bears have put more emphasis on his running game in part because he does not put up the high passing yards. Therefore, bettors should go with the over on Fields’ rushing yards and the under on his passing yards.

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